The Senate’s crypto market-structure bill stalled on 15 September, and the 3 November 2026 midterms now shape what happens next. The vote on the CLARITY Act came in eleven votes short of the 60 it needed, and no result in November removes that threshold.
Kalshi’s market-implied odds as of 12 October frame three scenarios for crypto legislation in 2027:
- Democratic sweep (61%). Any revival of the bill would be renegotiated, with ethics and stablecoin yield at the center, while agencies keep writing rules.
- Democratic House, Republican Senate (30%). The House can pass a bill with bipartisan votes, and the Senate stays the constraint.
- Republican sweep (11%). The bill could return early in 2027, and it would still need 60 Senate votes.
For a business outside the US that settles in USDC or USDT, the question is which of its counterparty, banking, compliance and issuer risks the result touches. The stablecoin law itself sits outside the election’s reach, while the exposure resides in the market-structure and state-law layers.
Where US crypto law stands on election day
Two separate laws are in play, and they run on different clocks.
CLARITY (market structure). The House passed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633, 294–134 on 17 July 2025: 216 Republicans and 78 Democrats voted yes. On 15 September 2026 the Senate voted 49–50 on cloture on the motion to proceed, short of 60 (Roll Call 234). All 49 yes votes were Republican. Senators Collins, Hawley, Moran and Tillis voted no, and Senator Coons did not vote. Tillis voted no in order to file a motion to reconsider, per the Senate’s own floor log, which keeps a procedural route open.
“Stalled” describes the bill better than “dead.” The congress.gov recordshows the motion to reconsider pending, and the bill stays available until the 119th Congress ends in early January. Lead sponsor Senator Cynthia Lummis said before the vote that a failure meant “it’s over”, and Orrick reports that passage in this Congress is now widely viewed as unlikely. A bill not enacted by then lapses, so a 2027 revival would start from a new bill.
There are two disputes holding up the bill. The first is ethics language on officials’ crypto holdings. Democratic and independent senators who voted no cited ethics, conflicts of interest, consumer protection and national security, and backers of the bill said they had made more than 100 revisions at Democratic senators’ request. Two days after the vote, seven Democratic senators, including Gallego, Gillibrand and Warner, called the result “a setback, but not the end” and recommitted to a bipartisan deal. The second dispute is stablecoin yield, including the concern that yield-bearing stablecoins could draw deposits away from banks.
GENIUS (payment stablecoins). Signed on 18 July 2025 and now in implementation, it is law but not yet in force. Under the Federal Reserve’s rulemaking notice, it takes effect on the earlier of 18 months after enactment (18 January 2027) or 120 days after the primary regulators issue final rules. Treasury’s proposed rule treats 18 January 2027 as the expected effective date. That date falls after the election and does not move with it.
What the markets and the money say
Kalshi’s own market page put Democratic control of the House at 90% and the Senate at 62% on 12 October. Its balance-of-power market prices four combined outcomes: Democratic sweep 61%, Democratic House with Republican Senate 30%, Republican sweep 11%, Republican House with Democratic Senate 1%. Kalshi notes the four prices won’t sum to exactly 100% because of spreads and liquidity. They are market prices that move daily.
On the money side, Public Citizen’s analysis of FEC data through the second quarter counts $206 million in crypto-corporation contributions to super PACs and hybrid PACs, the largest of the three technology-related sectors it tracked. Public Citizen is a consumer advocacy group that criticizes corporate super PAC spending. The industry’s flagship super PAC, Fairshake, reported $137.9 million in total receipts from 1 January 2025 to 31 August 2026, with $108.3 million cash on hand at the end of August. It backs candidates in both parties: its list of 32 House endorsements includes 19 Republicans and 13 Democrats, all of whom supported CLARITY.
Three scenarios for crypto legislation in 2027
One possibility sits before 2027. Until the 119th Congress ends, the pending motion to reconsider keeps a lame-duck vote procedurally possible, though reporting treats it as unlikely.
Every scenario below leaves a market-structure bill needing votes from the other party. What varies is how much those votes cost.
Democratic sweep (Kalshi: 61%). Democratic senators would hold the majority, and the bill would still need 60 votes. A revival would probably be renegotiated, and the ethics and yield language is where the last round broke down. Agency rulemaking stays the main track meanwhile.
Democratic House, Republican Senate (30%). The House has shown it can pass the bill with bipartisan support: 78 Democrats voted yes in July 2025. A new House would write its own text. The Senate would remain the constraint, with the same 60-vote math as this September. Agency-led rules stay the status quo.
Republican sweep (11%). CLARITY or a successor could be reintroduced early in 2027. It would still need 60 Senate votes, so Democratic support remains required.
The rules are being written anyway
With the bill stalled, the agencies are moving under existing authority, and both chairs have said they will proceed without Congress.
The SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets on 18 August. It covers offerings of investment contracts involving crypto assets, with one exemption for up to $5 million over four years and another for up to $75 million per 12 months. Comments closed on 20 October. That makes it a capital-raising framework with little direct bearing on paying a supplier in USDC.
The CFTC published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on 13 October (RIN 3038-AF80), with comments due 14 December. It addresses retail crypto transactions offered with leverage, margin or financing, and proposes a framework for CFTC-registered crypto asset markets. An advance notice is the earliest step, and the Commission says the comments will inform whether and how it proceeds to a rule. Neither agency track is aimed at payment stablecoins themselves: section 17 of the GENIUS Act says payment stablecoins are neither securities nor commodities.
Agency rules are easier to reverse than statute. A future Commission can withdraw them, and only the GENIUS Act rests in statute. Absent federal legislation, state licensing and registration regimes continue to apply.
What this means for a business outside the US
If you settle in USDC or USDT, the layers split as follows. GENIUS is signed, and its effective date is expected on 18 January 2027. Two restrictions matter. From the effective date, digital asset service providers cannot offer, sell or make available in the United States a stablecoin from a foreign issuer unless that issuer can comply with lawful orders. From 18 July 2028, they cannot offer or sell a payment stablecoin to a person located in the United States unless a permitted issuer issued it, with a pathway for foreign issuers registered with the OCC under a comparable regime. On Treasury’s proposed reading, these provisions reach offers and sales involving a person located in the United States, and an entity is “located” there if it is US-organized or has its principal place of business there. Exposure for a non-US business arrives through US-facing providers and US-located counterparties. Our guide to USDT vs USDC for business payments covers the issuer differences.
The EU runs on its own clock. ESMA confirmed that MiCA’s transitional period ended on 1 July 2026 across all 27 member states, whatever happens in Washington. Our guides to stablecoin rules under MiCA and MiCA CASP authorisation cover the details. For the settlement side, see how crypto compares with SWIFT on cross-border B2B corridors.
Five checks to put in front of any US-facing provider:
- Issuer status. Is your stablecoin issued by a US permitted issuer or a foreign one, and which treatment applies from 18 January 2027?
- Custody location. Where do reserves and client assets sit, and under which regulator?
- Licensing map. Which agency framework does the provider operate under, and what changes if the CFTC’s proposals are adopted?
- Contract terms. Do change-in-law clauses cover US statute and agency rules?
- Treasury policy. Set a review date after the election and after 18 January 2027. Our corporate treasury framework shows what a written policy needs to cover.
As of 12 October 2026, Kalshi prices a Democratic sweep as the most likely single outcome. Any outcome leaves a market-structure bill needing votes from both parties, and the agencies continue meanwhile. We will update this page once the results are in.
Talk to our desk about settling in regulated stablecoin rails.
This article is general information, not legal advice.